Geo of World Pop

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  1. Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
    RNI = CBR – CDR

    • CBR = crude birth rate
    • CDR = crude death rate
  2. Doubling Time
    – How long will it take a population to double its current size?

    – Calculated by dividing 69 (or 70) by the growth rate

    – Remember that the doubling time estimate assumes a constant growth rate.
  3. Doubling Time EX

    1950 country has 10 million people

    RNI = 2.1

    How long?
    .7 / 2.1

    = .333333

    takes 33.3 years to double
  4. How has population growth changed over time

    Three Major Periods of Population Growth
    The Cultural Revolution

    the "tool-making" revolution; no written record; everything we know is from archelogical record; low population; less than 10 mil

    The Agriculture Revolution

    more numerous, but still difficult life; after ice age meaning able to grow food; pop growing, but slowly due to epidemics of various diseasess

    The Industrial Revolution

    pop spike; origin in England; huge pop growth; steam power made building easier using machines instead of people; the human constriction of the clock was invented creating a new way of life
  5. Years of Population Growth
    1850 - 1 bill

    1950 - 2 bill

    1975 - 4 bill

    2011 - 7 bill

    2028 - 8 bill
  6. Should governments try to control population growth?
    • - Some believe it is unethical.
    • - Some feel that in order to solve the pop problem and limit pop growth it is necessary to introduce people to limit the size of families.
    • - They must take into account the interests and needs of particular regions and population groups.
    • - If wanting zero pop growth, they must think of the economic repercussion in the future behind such a decision.
  7. How does pop change affect society?
    A business will market differently in a coutry that has a high population in the youner generation to a high population in the elderly generation.

    The labor force will want to know how many young people are able or educated enough to work. Also, they will also want to know how many are going out of the workforce due to old age so they will be able to predict social security numbers.

    Education is interested as well with more and more of the young generation going on to higher education. The 60s saw a huge increase due to the baby boomers and the 90s as well do to the baby boomers having...babies...
  8. Uses of demographic data
    • Planning, policy guidelines, & projections

    • Monitoring current trends & programs

    • Research

    • – To varying degrees, each of these three
    • require data that is accurate, timely, and
    • detailed (topically and/or geographically).
  9. What are some conceptual issues in collecting demographic data?
    • – The data that are collected across space vary
    • considerably

    • – The way that (seemingly) basic demographic
    • measurements are interpreted vary considerably

    • Example: age

    • – The way that (seemingly) basic demographic
    • measurements are defined changes over time

    • Example: urban
  10. What are the main sources of demographic data?
    3 main sources:

    • – Census enumerations
    • – Vital Regristrations
    • – Sample surveys
  11. Why do a census?
    • - military (who can go to war) (#2 reason after taxing)
    • - political (representation)
    • - emergency management (police)
    • - services (schools)
    • - infrastructure (roads)
    • - where federal $ gets distributed
    • - labor (how many people you have to work)
  12. Problems with the census
    • - participation issues
    • - literacy levels
    • - economic development
    • - politics (how do you count/what way do you count)
    • - counting errors
    • - civic engagement (people aren't willing to cooperate)
  13. Errors with census
    • - college students are a great example for counting errors
    • - live at school, maybe counted themselves, plus their parents; divorced parents…again counted
    • - homeless are undercounted
    • - military; counted by military while deployed; counted by wife at home

    • Two broad categories of errors

    • Non-sampling error
    • Content error
    • - when they misunderstand the ?
    • Coverage error (net census undercount)
    • - not counted and over counted peeps
    • Sampling error
    • - sampled a population that didn't really matter for your overall assessment
  14. Describe US census history
    • • First census: 1790
    • – A headcount

    • • 1810-1850 censuses
    • – Expanded data collection

    • 1880 census

    – Took nearly 10 years to tabulate & publish results

    • • 1890 census
    • – First tabulating machines used

    • 1902: Census Bureau made a permanent institution

    Census today:

    • Data collection:

    – Every 10 years: population census

    – Every 5 years:

    • • Economic activity census
    • • State & local government census

    • – Every year:
    • • More than 100 other surveys conducted

    • Employment:

    – 12,000 regular employees

    • – During decennial census collection, many
    • temporary workers hired

    • 2000 census: 860,000 temporary workers

    • 2010 census: 560,000 temporary workers

    • – Hired between 2008-2010
    • – Paid $10-25 / hour
  15. Vital Regristration
    • • A dynamic recording of events that can
    • change rapidly

    • A recording of major vital events

    - births/deaths/marriages/divorces/abortions

    • Data are highly variable
  16. Sample Survey
    • • A common way to collect data because
    • sample surveys are

    – Faster and cheaper

    – Often times, more accurate

    • – In some places, it is the only way to collect
    • demographic data

    • • Sampling design is crucial to success
    • • A variety of variables affect success
  17. Population registers
    – Compilation of all vital events into one,centralized system
  18. Aditional Sources of Demographic Data
    • Examples: School censuses, church records,
    • hospital records, city directories, DMV
    • records, marriage licenses, utility hookups

    • • Keep in mind that this information was collected
    • for one purpose which might not be the same
    • purpose you have
  19. Compare Census/Vital Registration/Sample Survey
    - All collect some type of population data

    - In all, the design is crucial to success

    - All are variable
  20. Contrast Census/Vital Registration/Sample Survey
    - Costs are different...Census very expensive...S.S. cheap

    - Census is more detailed

    - Vital is a collected by a church usually, where as Census is usually government operated

    - SS is fastest
  21. Social Status changing with age
    - more rights as you get older; vote, drink, drive, etc

    - Age is a form of social mobility but it is unidirectional meaning that you can only get more, you cant get less of an age... which would take the rights away form you...

    Mean earnings by age:

    • v 15-24: $14,268
    • v 25-34: $36,146
    • v 35-44: $47,520
    • v 45-54: $49,570
    • v 55-64: $46,408
    • v 65-74: $33,286
    • v 75+: $24,396
  22. Factors affecting age and sex structure
    - prolongation of life by reducing death rates has a preverse effect of making the population somewhat younger.

    - migration will affect age structure but not sex structure for it is age-selective; almost all migrants are young

    - war will lower you young population and will also lower birth rates
  23. Age strata (layers) defined in western society
    Not Fixed:

    • - Infancy
    • - Childhood
    • - Adolescence
    • - Young adulthood
    • - Middle age
    • - Young-old
    • - Baby boomers in the US
    • - Old-old
    • - Oldest-old

    • most power
    • - $ says young-old
    • - numbers says young-old
    • - older = more likely to vote
  24. Definition of:

    Young Society

    Old Society
    v A “young” population = 35% + under the age of 15

    v An “old” population = 12% + over the age of 65
  25. Interpreting a Population Pyramid
    normal triangle = high birth rates high death rates; few today, normal during 17th 18th centuries

    skinny top wide bottom = falling death rate high birth rate; developing country

    missle looking = stable pop; low birth rates, low death rates; high median age; highly developed
  26. Population Pyramid
    v An age and gender bar graph

    v Number (or % of population) along the x axis

    v Age (cohorts) along the y axisv Shape of the pyramid is primarily determinedby the crude birth rate

    v A young population has a broad base

    v An old population is “top-heavy”
  27. Population Pyramids

    Stable and Stationary popluations def
    v Stable population

    v The percentages of people at each age and sexr emain the same for long periods of time

    v Stationary population

    v A type of stable population

    v Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
  28. Three ways to project population
    • v Extrapolation
    • v Components of growth method
    • v Cohort component method
  29. Extraplotation
    v The easiest of the three to calculate

    • v You need to know the population at two
    • different dates

    • v Calculate the rate of growth between the two
    • dates (either linearly or logarithmically)

    • v Use the calculated rate of growth to determine
    • how many people will be added by the target
    • year

    • v This method does not take into account births,
    • deaths, or migration
  30. Components of growth
    v EP=SP+B–D+/-NM

    • v Where
    • v EP = Ending population
    • v SP = Starting population
    • v B = births (all births between SP & EP)
    • v D = deaths (all deaths between SP & EP)
    • v NM = net migration (total between SP & EP)

    • v Unlike extrapolation, you consider births, deaths &
    • migration

    • v It is not very precise because you are assuming a
    • constant B, D, & NM rate
  31. Cohort component method
    v The most precise method

    • v You must know the following for a base year (usually
    • a census year):

    • v The distribution of your population by age & sex
    • v Age-specific mortality rates
    • v Age-specific fertility rates
    • v If possible, age-specific rates of migration

    • v With these data, you must then make decisions as
    • they relate to particular age groups

    • v Fertility is the hardest thing to predict
    • v CC projections are given 3 ways: low, medium & high
  32. Contrast Extrapolation/Components of Growth Method/ Cohort Component Method
    - Extra is easiest and less precise along with COGM

    - CC is most precise and requires the most info

    - Extra is least expensive; CC is most expensive
  33. Primary Theory
    - developed for explaining demographic behavior

    - can be either environmental or naturalistic
  34. Secondary Theory
    - have as their main purpose the analysis of a much broader class of phenomena that have demographic implications

    EX) a researcher is interested in the area of economic behavior and the results come from a demographic significance

    - can be either environmental or naturalistic
  35. Environmental Theory
    - seek explanations of demographic behavior through a variety of processes that may themselves vary in time and space
  36. Naturalistic Theory
    - explanations emphasize the role of biological processes and oftern fail to consider people's adaptive capacities
  37. Thomas Malthus
    • Principle of population

    • - food is necessary to the existence of man
    • - the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain in its present state
    • - pop would grow geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16)
    • - food would grow arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

    • Positive checks

    - those that affected the death rate including misery, disease, famine, and war

    • Preventive checks

    - those that affected the birth rate including homosexuality, birth control, abortion, "moral restraint"

    • Poverty is a result of too many people depleting limited resources
  38. Criticisms of Malthus
    – Food supply can keep up with population growth

    – Poverty is an inevitable result of population growth

    – Moral restraint is the only acceptable preventive check
  39. Neo-Malthusians
    - still argue that population growth is a problem

    - go beyond pop and say that it is a problem to the environment as well

    • Moral restraint versus contraception

    • Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons

    - open access to a natural resource leads inevitably to over-exploitation of the resource

    • Ehrlich’s Population Bomb

    – The Birth Rate Solution

    - contolled either morally, financially, or coercivelly legal incentives by the U.S. or world government

    – The Death Rate Solution

    - war, famine, disease
  40. Ester Boserup
    • Agricultural intensification theory

    – Population stimulates technological change
  41. Marx
    • The antithesis to Malthus, capitalism

    – Poverty and population

    - poverty is due to unequal distribution of resources; no population problem

    - give people equal distribution, and their tech would be good enough to outgrow population problem; explotation by the rich is blocking this solution

    - birth control seen as improved health, better education for next generation, and improved conditions for women; nothing to do with population control
  42. John Stuart Mill
    – A parliamentary radical

    – Population could out-pace food supply

    • Two solutions

    – People are intelligent and can stabilize population

    -- ????
  43. Demographic Transition Model
    • Derives from the work of Warren Thompson in 1929

    – Demographic data from select countries during the years 1908-1927

    – Countries fell into three categories

    • • Group A (Incipient decline)
    • • Group B (Transitional growth)
    • • Group C (High growth potential)

    • Phase 1 - high birth/death rates
    • Phase 2 - death rate drops
    • - still high birth rates
    • - pop skyrockets
    • Phase 3 - birth rate drops
    • - pop rate still growing, but not as fast
    • Phase 4 - perfect society
    • - high population
    • - low birth/death rate
  44. Transitions of the Demographic Change
    • Central Question:

    – How (and under what conditions) can a mortality decline lead to a fertility decline?

    • Multiphasic response

    • Emphasis on the individual

    • Perhaps a longer process

    • Really, a series of changes or transitions

    – Mortality transition

    - death rates declined first in northwestern Europe, then the U.S. and last in Africa, South East Asia, and West South America

    • – Fertility transition
    • - declining
    • - still high in Africa/SouthWest Asia

    • – Age transition
    • - rising

    • – Migration transition
    • - people flock to US/Europe/Australia like crazy
    • - migration into the U.S. come mostly from Latin America, then Aisa, then Europe

    • • Urban transition
    • - amount of people going urban is rising EVERYWHERE

    • • Family and Household transition
    • - more single people now
    • - less married couples
  45. Ecumene
    - the inhabited part of the earth
  46. Confidentiality
  47. Zero Population Growth

    - an equilibrium population with a growth rate of zero, achieved when births plus immigration equal deaths plus emigration
  48. De Facto Population
    - expression mthat means in fact or in practice but not spelled out by law

    - way of doing census

    - DEF - where you find them on the day you conduct the survey
  49. De Jure population
    - an expression that means based on law

    - way of doing census

    - DEF - legal residence
  50. Sex Ratio
    - the number of males per 100 females in a population

    Factors affecting sex ratio:

    • v Death rate differences between the sexes
    • v Net migration rate differences between the sexes
    • v The sex ratio of newborns


    • v More males born than females
    • v Imbalanced sex ratios
    • v Example: China
    • v Generally, females have lower death rates at all
    • ages
    • v Females outnumber males in short-distance
    • moves
    • v Males outnumber females in long-distance
    • moves
  51. Sampling Error
    - sampled a population that didn't really matter for your overall assessment
  52. Non Sampling Error
    - Content E - when they misunderstand the ?

    - Coverage E - not counted and over counted peeps
  53. Privacy vs Confidentiality

    • • Limited objection to the first census
    • – A small number objected on religious grounds

    • • Censusresultswerepubliclypostedfrom1790-1840
    • – Apparently with little complaint

    • 1880 Census Act

    – Enumerators took an oath not to disclose info

    • – Subsequent censuses provided personal information to others
    • for little cost, and to other government agencies

    • • Title13(1954)
    • – Code under which the Census operates
    • – Provides confidentiality for respondents
  54. Age stratification (building up of layers)
    v Age is a form of social mobility but it is unidirectional

    There are social statuses and social roles applied to particular ages

    - age has rights as you go up
  55. Cohort Data
    v People who share the same age in common

    • v Cohort flow: movement through time of a group
    • of people born in the same year

    - Population Pyramids are cohort data
  56. Period Data
    • v Refer to a particular year and represent a cross
    • section of population at one specific time

    - TFR is period Data
  57. Sex
    biologoical differences
  58. Gender
    social differences
  59. Pronatalist
    • - the policy or practice of encouraging the bearing of
    • children, especially government support of a higher birthrate.
  60. Antinatalist
    - the policy or practice of discouraging the bearing of children, especially government support of a lower birthrate.
  61. Doctrine
    • - a particular principle, position, or policy
    • taught oradvocated, as of a religion or government
  62. Theory
    • - a coherent group of tested general propositions,
    • commonlyregarded as correct, that can be used as
    • principles ofexplanation and prediction for a class of phenomena
Card Set:
Geo of World Pop
2011-10-17 00:52:33

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