Geog 245 Midterm 2

• Perhaps the most powerful and
• enduring demographic influence on this nation
• ·Largest generation in history of U.S.
• ·Refers to those born between 1946 & 1964
• · (in 2012 between 48 – 66 years of age)

• ·Currently, Baby Boomers represent ¼ of the US population
• ·Now middle to late-middle aged!

• ·Boomers have had a great impact:
• schools, labor markets, housing markets, and government programs

• Boomers are a diverse collection of individuals, not a monolithic group -> expectations and experiences vary
• · “Leading edge” – born 1946 to1954
• · “Trailing edge” – born 1955 to 1964

• ·Social impact: broadened the bounds of acceptable behavior
• · formed agenda for social change..60s-70s
• · living together without marriage (cohabitation)
• · greater male household responsibilities…while
• · women entered the labor force
• (rise of dual-income families.)

• ·Demographic impact:
• · Trailing edge boomers started
• families in the 1980s à baby boom echo… birth rates and
• number of births up in the 1980s

• Not a return to large families of
• the 19th century, but a shift in the
• patterns of childbearing… primacy of the nuclear family

• Demographic Factors
• ·more marriages and younger marriages
• ·1940: 54% women 20-24 were married
• ·1960: 71% women 20-24 were
• married
• ·1990: 37% women 20-24 were
• married

• ·children (~2) at younger ages and closer together (spacing)
• ·1st birth rates high for both older and younger women older women who had delayed earlier bore children

• children born sooner and closer together
• 1955-64: half 1st births were within 15 months of
• marriage.
• Whereas in 1930s within 26 months, 1970s within 27 months.

• EconomicFactors
• · 1950s a period of rapid economic expansion – growth of metro areas
• · increased government spending
• · availability of good jobs at relatively high wages
• · GI Bill for education
• · VA loans for housing …suburbanization
• (family and household creation)

• Social Factors
• · resurgence of traditional family-centered values
• · ambivalence toward preventing an
• “extra child” (3rd or 4th)
• · most racial, economic, and
• religious segments contributed to boom

GenerationalSize and Well-Being

Boomers are sandwiched between two much smaller generations

• ·Easterlin’s Relative Income Hypothesis:
• the relative size of one’s generation influences life chances and wellbeing…
• and the decision to start a family sooner or later

• • Small generations precipitate labor shortages… good wages, less competition
• • Large generations lower one’s chances, more competition …the 1930’s generation prospered à the baby boom
• · Real test of the cohort-size theory – the baby-bust generation should experience less competition, more favorable environment

Some researchers find boomers actually have done better than their parents at the same stage in life…

but today’s technology, economy, and politics are different, and interact with demographic trends.

Census 2000 counted 79.6 million U.S. residents born in the years 1946 to 1964, inclusive. That number is higher than the 76 million births because net immigration (the number of people coming into the United States from other countries, minus those moving the other way) more than outweighed the number of deaths. The flow of immigrants greatly increased after passage of the Immigration Act of 1965, just as the baby boom was ending.

So one can use either of these figures to approximate the number of baby boomers — the 72 million who grew up wearing Davy Crockett-style faux-raccoon hats, or the 79 million wearing parrot heads to Jimmy Buffett concerts now.

• Population by Single Year of Age and Sex: 1970
• Population by Single Year of Age and Sex: 2000
• 
• Population by Single Year of Age and Sex: 2030
• 

• 1.California
• 2.Texas
• 3.NY
• 4.FL
• 5.Pennsylvania

• 1.Vermont
• 2.Maine
• 3.New Hampshire
• 4.Montana
• 5.Connecticut

• 1. Los Angeles, CA
• 2. Cook County, IL
• 3. Harris County, TX
• 4. Maricopa County, AZ
• 5. Orange County, CA

• 1. Clear Creek County, CO
• 2. Monroe County, FL
• 3. Mercer County, North Dakota
• 4. Teller County, CO
• 5. Gilipin County, CO

• In 2001 there were about 4 million births in the
• United States and a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 births per woman.

Minorities contributed 42 percent of all births, although they made up only 31 percent of the population.

One reason minorities accounted for a disproportionate share of births is that a larger proportion of minority women are in their childbearing ages, but minority women also have more children than non-Hispanic white women on average.

• In 2001, non-Hispanic whites had an average of 1.9 births per woman, compared with 2.0 births among Asian Americans, 2.1 births among American Indians, 2.2 births
• among non-Hispanic blacks, and 3.2 births among Hispanics.

With an average of more than three births per woman, the 2001 total fertility rate among Hispanics rivaled that of the U.S. population in the early 1960s during the tail end of the baby boom.

Blacks are the only group who experienced a substantial decline in fertility rates during the past decade, with a drop in the TFR from 2.5 in 1990 to 2.2 in 2001.

Since 1993, the absolute number of Hispanic births has exceeded the births to black women, a trend that is likely to continue as the Hispanic population grows.

• Disruption Hypothesis
• 

• Selectivity Hypothesis
• 

• Adaptation Hypothesis
• 

• •(February 2011) The number of babies born in the United States fell by 2.3 percent in 2009, and the number is continuing to slide. The total fertility rate, or average number of lifetime births per woman, for 2009 was 2.01, the lowest
• level since 1998.1 The recent drop in births puts the U.S. total fertility rate below the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman.

The birth rate fell among nearly all age groups—except for a slight uptick among women in their early 40s—and reached a historic low level for teenagers. The birth rate for women ages 15 to 19 fell to 39.1 births per 1,000 women in 2009, the lowest level since the government began tracking teenage birth data in 1940. Women ages 20 to 24 also saw major rate declines.

For the first time in years, the rate of births to unmarried women declined. However, births to married women declined even more, which pushed the percentage of all U.S. births to unmarried mothers to 41, an all-time high.

Birth rates declined among all the major racial and ethnic groups, but Hispanics saw the biggest declines. Hispanics have more children than non-Hispanic groups, on average, but the gap narrowed a bit in recent years. The TFR for Hispanic women fell from 2.9 in 2008 to 2.7 in 2009 (see table).

• The recent fall is not surprising given the current economic downturn—couples facing economic uncertainty often
• postpone having children. Many had predicted fertility decline given high unemployment rates, the home mortgage crisis, and slow economic growth since 2008. The Great Depression of the 1930s and the "oil-shock" of the 1970s were also periods of record low fertility in the United States.

However, the question remains: Will fertility bounce back when the economy improves, or will low fertility become the norm for Americans, as it has for Canadians and Europeans? Even at its current low level, the U.S. rate is higher than nearly every developed country, and these countries also experienced fertility declines during the recent recession.3 Will couples eventually have the babies they postponed during the recession? We will be watching new birth statistics as they are published. For now, we can expect to see continued declines over the near term.

• ·During the 20th century the number of persons in
• the US under age 65 has tripled.

• ·The number of persons over age 65 has increased by a factor of 11!
• 1900:
• elderly were 1 in 25 people
• 1994:
• elderly were 1 in 8 people
• 2050:
• elderly will be 1 in 5 people.

·Elderly population more than double to reach 80 million.

·Not a homogeneous group, rather an ever extended period of the life cycle.

·Young-old (65 to 74) and the old-old (75 and over) (oldest-old, 85 +)

·Arizona and Arkansas will have higher proportions elderly than Florida today.

·Over half of US elderly are likely to live in just 10 states

·In most of these the elderly population will literally double.

·The Midwest and Florida will have the highest proportion of old-old.

·Elderly whites are more evenly distributed.

·Other races are more regionally concentrated.

·Differences in language also geographically concentrated.

·Majority don’t move. Only 4 percent of all movers are elderly households.

• ·2 types of moves:
• 1. intercommunity, amenity
• associated long-distance moves (young-old)
• 2. Intracommunity, assistance associated
• short-distance moves. (old-old)

• Litwak and Longino (1987) Developmental Perspective on Elderly Mobility
• Three stages of mobility in the elderly life course:
• 1. upon retirement
• 2. experience moderate forms of disability and move closer to kin
• 3. chronic disability presages institutionalization

• Majority of Elderly Age-in-place
• ·Three main processes by which migration contributes to elderly concentrations:
• accumulation – elderly are left behind by the
• out-migration of younger individuals
• recomposition – younger individuals leave and
• older one arrive
• congregation – older individuals arrive at a
• faster rate than younger ones

• Political Power
• Significant future political power of the elderly.
• Numbers, Assets, Voting Blocks
• Associations – American
• Association of Retired People (AARP)
• Well-educated and diverse population

• Entitlement Issues: Medicaid and Social Security
• ·1950: 16.5 workers for each recipient of Social Security benefits
• ·1990: 3.4 workers for each recipient of Social
• Security benefits
• ·2050: 1.9 workers for each recipient of Social
• Security benefits

• •Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population.
• 
  •The probability of dying during a given time period is linked to many factors, such as age, sex, race, occupation, and social class.

•The incidence of death can reveal much about a population’s standard of living and health care.

•Crude Death Rate: the number of deaths per thousand population in a given year.

• •Age-specific death rates
• •Cause-specific death rates

•Morbidity refers to disease and illness, injuries and disabilities in a population.

•Data about the frequency and distribution of a disease can aid in controlling its spread, and in some cases, may lead to the identification of its cause.

•Epidemiology: is the study of factors affecting the health and illness of populations, and serves as the foundation and logic of interventions made in the interest of public health and preventive medicine.

• John Snow, M.D. (1813--1858), a legendary figure in epidemiology, provided one of the earliest examples of
• using epidemiologic methods to identify risk for disease and recommend preventive action (1). Best known for his work in anesthesiology, Snow also had an interest in cholera and supported the unpopular theory that cholera was transmitted by water rather than through miasma (i.e., bad air).

• On August 31, 1854, London experienced a recurrent epidemic of cholera; Snow suspected water from the
• Broad Street pump as the source of disease. To test his theory, Snow reviewed death records of area residents who died from cholera and interviewed household members, documenting that most deceased persons had lived near and had drunk water from the pump. Snow presented his findings to community leaders, and the pump handle was removed on September 8, 1854. Removal of the handle prevented additional cholera deaths, supporting Snow's theory that cholera was a waterborne, contagious disease. Despite the success of this investigation, the cause of cholera remained a matter of debate until Vibrio cholerae was isolated in 1883.

• Stage 1: The Age of Pestilence and Famine
• –High and wildly fluctuating mortality rates
• –Frequent pandemics
• –Life expectancy between 20 and 30 years

• Stage 2: The Age of receding Pandemics
• –Mortality peaks are lower and less frequent
• –Infrequent epidemics
• –Life expectancy increases to about 55 years or so
• –Period marked by rapid population expansion
• –Increasing importance of nutrition and medical hygiene

• Stage 3: the Age of Degenerative and Man-made Diseases
• –low and relatively stable mortality
• –Principal causes of death are factors relating to a mature population
• –Heart disease, cancer, stroke
• –Life expectancy is 70 years or more
• –Increasing potential of medical advancements