Ops Chp 9
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bendmar
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183184
Filename:
Ops Chp 9
Updated:
2012-11-12 13:22:22
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Ops Chp
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Ops Chp 9
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Contingency plans?
Alternative or back-up plans to be used if an unexpected event makes the normal plans infeasible.
Planning horizon?
The distance into the future one plans.
Life cycle?
pattern of demand growth and decline that occurs from the introduction of a product to its obsolescence.
Introduction stage?
First state of a produt or service life cycle
Growth stage?
Second stage of a product or service life cycle, where demand begins to increase.
Maturation stage?
Third stage of a product or service life cycle when demand begins to level off.
Saturation stage?
Fourth stage of a product or service life cycle when demand shifts to the beginning of its decline
Decline stage?
Final stage of a product or service life cycle as demand disappears
Qualitative forecast?
forecast bases on qualitative information
Quantitative forecast?
forecast based on quantitative data
Causal forecast?
forecast that uses extrinsic data as a predictor of demand
Time series forecasting?
using past demand to forecast the future
Cycle
component of a time series that is a pattern that repeats over a long period of time.
Trend?
component of a time series that causes demand to increase or decrease
Seasonality?
pattern in a time series that repeats itself at last once a year
Random fluctuation
unpredicable variation in demand. This is not due to trend, seasonality, or cycle.
Simple exponential smoothing?
a sophisticated type of moving average that uses a smooth constant to weight the previous demand and establish the responsiveness of the forecast
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing?
an exponential smoothing technique that includes a smoothing constant for trend
Forecast including trend (FIT)
Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing
Absolute error?
the absolute value of the forecast error
Forecast bias?
the tendency of a forecast to be too high or too low
Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
A measure of the absolute forecast error that is the mean of the absolute values of the forecast errors .
Mean foreacst error (MFE)
measure of forecast bias that is the mean of the forecast errors.
Running sum of forecast error (RSFE)
measure of forecast bias that is the sum of forecast error, and is updated as each new error is calculated