Ops Chp 9
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Contingency plans?
Alternative or backup plans to be used if an unexpected event makes the normal plans infeasible.

Planning horizon?
The distance into the future one plans.

Life cycle?
pattern of demand growth and decline that occurs from the introduction of a product to its obsolescence.

Introduction stage?
First state of a produt or service life cycle

Growth stage?
Second stage of a product or service life cycle, where demand begins to increase.

Maturation stage?
Third stage of a product or service life cycle when demand begins to level off.

Saturation stage?
Fourth stage of a product or service life cycle when demand shifts to the beginning of its decline

Decline stage?
Final stage of a product or service life cycle as demand disappears

Qualitative forecast?
forecast bases on qualitative information

Quantitative forecast?
forecast based on quantitative data

Causal forecast?
forecast that uses extrinsic data as a predictor of demand

Time series forecasting?
using past demand to forecast the future

Cycle
component of a time series that is a pattern that repeats over a long period of time.

Trend?
component of a time series that causes demand to increase or decrease

Seasonality?
pattern in a time series that repeats itself at last once a year

Random fluctuation
unpredicable variation in demand. This is not due to trend, seasonality, or cycle.

Simple exponential smoothing?
a sophisticated type of moving average that uses a smooth constant to weight the previous demand and establish the responsiveness of the forecast

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing?
an exponential smoothing technique that includes a smoothing constant for trend

Forecast including trend (FIT)
Trendadjusted exponential smoothing

Absolute error?
the absolute value of the forecast error

Forecast bias?
the tendency of a forecast to be too high or too low

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
A measure of the absolute forecast error that is the mean of the absolute values of the forecast errors .

Mean foreacst error (MFE)
measure of forecast bias that is the mean of the forecast errors.

Running sum of forecast error (RSFE)
measure of forecast bias that is the sum of forecast error, and is updated as each new error is calculated