Law enforcement intelligence analysis

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Law enforcement intelligence analysis
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Law enforcement intelligence analysis
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  1. Intelligence concepts
    three total
  2. Intelligence concepts
    Organization
  3. intelligence concepts
    activity
  4. intelligence concepts
    end product
  5. elements of analysis
    10 total
  6. elements of analysis
    planning
  7. Elements of analysis
    researching
  8. elements of analysis

    collecting
  9. elements of analysis
    reading and indexing
  10. elements of analysis
    evaluation ( reliability, relevancy, timeliness, accuracy, sufficiency)
  11. elements of analysis
    coalition
  12. elements of analysis
    examining
  13. elements of analysis
    derived meaning
  14. elements of analysis
    reporting (orally, written)
  15. elements of analysis
    recommending
  16. Intelligence process
    nine total
  17. intelligence process
    planning
  18. intelligence process
    direction
  19. intelligence process
    collection
  20. intelligence process
    reporting
  21. intelligence process
    evaluation
  22. intelligence process
    coalition
  23. intelligence process
    analysis
  24. intelligence process
    dissemination
  25. intelligence process
    indexing, storage, repository
  26. harms
    five total
  27. harms
    physical
  28. harms
    psychological
  29. harms
    financial
  30. harms
    community
  31. harms
    societal
  32. outside the box thinking
    five total
  33. outside the box thinking
    organized criminality ( organized crime)
  34. outside the box thinking
    CDS ( controlled dangerous substances) (1. Manufactured, 2.  distribution)
  35. outside the box thinking
    gangs ( juvenile, adult, international)
  36. outside the box thinking
    terrorism ( foreign, domestic)
  37. outside the box thinking
    corruption ( political, official)
  38. outside the box thinking
    money laundering
  39. The intelligence process
  40. what is the definition of intelligence?
    Intelligence is the end product of a complex process, sometimes physical but always intellectual. The end product may be a thorough description of a state of affairs,  an informed judgment, a single fact or a best guess
  41. What are the end products of intelligence?
    1.an informed judgment, 2. a thorough description of a state of affairs 3.  a single fact 4. a best guess
  42. intelligence can be _______  or can be _______, more importantly, intelligence is ___ ______
    intelligence can be factual or can be suggestive. more importantly, intelligence is not static
  43. What are the parts of the intelligence process?

    planning and directing
  44. what are the parts of the intelligence process? Continued
    collecting and reporting
  45. what are the parts of the intelligence process? continued
    evaluating
  46. what are the parts of the intelligence process? Continued
    collating
  47. what are the parts of the intelligence process? continued
    Analysis -  this can lead to additions or changes to planning and directing, and collecting and reporting
  48. what are the parts of the intelligence process ?     END
    dissemination
  49. what does " sometimes physical" represent?
    it represents the collection aspect of the intelligence process
  50. What  does " always intellectual"  represent?
    it represents the analysis aspect of the intelligence process, yet also includes other components as well
  51. intelligence Is ? ( first definition one of three)
    " all the things which should be known in advance of initiating a course of action"
  52. intelligence is ? ( second definition of three)
    a meaningful statement derived from information which is been selected, evaluated, interpreted and finally expressed so that it significance to a current policy issue is clear
  53. intelligence is? ( Third definition of three)
    knowledge of the enemy, actual or potential. ( This presupposes that we know who the enemy is. Do we know its capabilities, intentions and motivations?)
  54. What are the types of intelligence? (4 types)
    • strategic
    •  tactical
    •  operational

     protective
  55. what is the definition of strategic intelligence?
    • is an end product about structure, infrastructure, activities, movement, plans, capabilities, intentions and motivations of criminal and terrorist organizations.
    •  macro analysis
  56. What is the purpose of strategic intelligence?
    This end product is used for the formation of policy and plans( a federal, state, county,  municipal and local jurisdictions). It is meant to support long-range planning
  57. examples of strategic intelligence
    identify street gangs operating in the jurisdiction and  prioritize them in the context of harm

     identify organized crime groups operating in a jurisdiction  and prioritize them
  58. what does strategic intelligence support?
    this supports targeting, planning and enforcement action. Think indicators of or specific suspicious activities associated with specific criminal behavior.
  59. What is the shelf life of strategic intelligence?
    strategic intelligence has a longer shelf life and tactical and operational intelligence.

     The shelf life is 12 to 18 months
  60. what is the definition of tactical intelligence?
    an product  that supports the immediate and short range planning needs of the intelligent opponent or CEO.
  61. What can tactical intelligence be used for?
    Tactical intelligence can be the beginning of developing base- line information about a criminological issue.  It can be the basis for strategic intelligence development
  62. what are some examples of tactical intelligence?
    monitor the current movements and activities of known members/Associates of a gang,  organized criminal group/network, or suspected terrorists.
  63. What does tactical intelligence support?
    tactical intelligence supports targeting and developing targets of opportunity.
  64. What is the shelf life of tactical intelligence?
    • it has a shorter shelf life then strategic intelligence and longer than operational intelligence.
    • 6–12  months
  65. what is operational intelligence?
    • Operational intelligence is that information, knowledge or a product that supports an ongoing investigation.
    •  
    • Micromanagement
  66. what are some examples of Operational intelligence?
    provide intelligence information about a known entity that is a subject of a major investigation.

     officer survival information assists uniform officers  to better handle specific calls, but a response to specific locations, better handling of specific types of offenders
  67. what is the shelf life operational intelligence?
    • is a short shelf life owning to the dynamics of investigation and the dynamics of the precinct or district.
    •  The shelf life can be hours, days, weeks, and/or months
  68. what is protective intelligence? (After this card proceed to card set 2)
    protective intelligence is an end product " about persons and organizations that may have an interest, motive, intention and capacity of mounting attacks against public officials and figures"
  69. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    1. Support the police executive
  70. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    2. Develop and maintain information organized on criminal groups or suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities.
  71. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    3. Support strategic, tactical, operational objective law enforcement operations
  72. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    4. Support intelligence and investigative targeting
  73. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    5. provide support in crisis situations
  74. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    6.  monitor the potential for criminal activity
  75. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    7. conduct counterintelligence
  76. What are the purposes of intelligence? (11 p)
    8.  developed indications and warnings( based on criminal competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprise, corruption, suspicious activity.)
  77. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    9. Assist criminal groups/organizations potential for violence, economic growth, expansion ( geographic), recruiting, mobility and corruption
  78. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    10.  delineate the criminal infrastructure in the context of criminal and terrorist organizations and prioritize for targeting
  79. What are the purposes of intelligence? ( 11 purposes)
    11.  support law enforcement intelligence databases
  80. what are initiators of the intelligence process?
     Or what initiates the intelligence process? 
    ( five parts)
    1.  the chief Commissioner or designee provides information requests or ask questions to support a policy initiative; or states an imperative concerning a criminological issue

    2. the intelligence unit commander, anticipating the Chiefs interest, generates information requirements or issues imperatives.

    3. The intelligence process may be initiated by criminological and non-criminological events.

    4. The process may be initiated to update earlier generated intelligence information and products (i.e.assessments)  held but believed to be stale. (Remember, intelligence information is not static)

    5.  the process may be initiated as a matter of standard operating procedure.
  81. What do you need to initiate intelligence process?
    To initiate the intelligence process their must be reasonable suspicion or a criminal predicate

    •  a criminal predicate is a felony criminal act
    •  it is also the lowest legal threshold to initiate an initial investigation
  82. what is the definition of reasonable suspicion?
    reasonable suspicion is (established)  based upon information which establishes sufficient facts to give to a trained law enforcement or criminal investigative agencies officers, investigators, or employees a basis to believe that there is a  reasonable possibility that an individual or organization  is involved in a definable criminal activity or enterprise.
  83. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    1. Commander
  84. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    2. Deputy commander
  85. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    3.  supervisors-  field units
  86. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    4.  operations officer ( W/deputy)
  87. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    5.  intelligence officers-  collectors
  88. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    6.  analysts-   analytical section
  89. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    7.  liaison officer-  liaison section
  90. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    8. information management
  91. What compiles an intelligence unit? ( nine parts)
    9.  clerical
  92. what is the mission statement?
     the mission of the intelligence ( unit, section, division, component)  is to provide intelligence information, strategic and tactical command elements of the... police department(... state police)  developed intelligence information  will focus on organized criminal behavior, adult and juvenile street gangs, elements engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of controlled dangerous substances, traditional and ethnic criminal organizations, terrorist and a groups, and official corruption.  operational intelligence will be provided to operational elements on an as needed basis, and immediately as a relates to officer survival.
  93. What is an intelligence failure?
    It can be defined as any misunderstanding of the situation that leads to an agency to take actions that are inappropriate and counterproductive to its own interests and that of the community or jurisdiction it serves

     the worst kind of intelligence failure is surprise attack
  94. What are the reasons for intelligence failures ? ( nine reasons)
    • 1.  the absence of an intelligence component
    • 2.  overestimation-  to exceed or surpass; excessive judgment, considered casual; e.g thinking that a specific gang is more thrilling than another
    • 3.  underestimation-   underrate; to judge less than what is considered actual and size, quality, or number; e.g.  thinking that gang is less threatening than another
    • 4.  lack of communication-  absence of centralized office; different officials from different bureaus, sections or divisions have their own interpretations of intelligence; operate under different policies and procedures relative to who and how internal and external   communications occur; 
    • 5.  subordination of intelligence to policy -  this results when judgments ( intelligence products) are made to coincide to what supervisors want to hear instead of what the information indicates
    • 6.  bias- a settled  and  prejudiced outlook; preconceived judgment or opinion; in on recent distortion of judgment; a deviation introduced to favor one outcome over another.
    • 7.  Denial-  refusal to knowledge ordinate the indications or to reality; assertion that the findings, even suggestive, or false
    • 8.  unavailability of information -  restrictive circulation of intelligence information and final products.  Or, there is in fact no intelligence on a specific issue or subject
    • 9.  received opinion-  also called " conventional wisdom"; a relative consensus about something exists about an issue that is not been sufficiently examined.  akin to a best guess since there maybe limited information.
  95. Intelligence analysis
  96. Define analysis
    It is that activity whereby meaning, actual or suggested, is derived to organizing and systematically examining diverse information.
  97. Define activity
    is a process or procedure; mental and physical process and procedure.

    •  More mental- elements of analysis
    •  less physical -  collection and collation
  98. define meaning
    it is something that is conveyed by language; a logical connotation (suggesting meaning)  of a word or phrase; a logical denotation or extension of a word or phrase ( indirect specific meaning as distinct from an implied or associated idea.)
  99. Define organizing
    it is arranging, collating and integrating diverse information.
  100. define systematically examining
    It is being procedurally methodical, orderly and thorough. This implies  knowing and utilizing accepted methodologies.
  101. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    1. assists in managing information
  102. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    2. develops intelligence informations
  103. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    3. develops models ( criminal networks)
  104. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    4. facilitates targeting
  105. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    5. identifies information gaps
  106. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis?
    6. facilitate decision-making
  107. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    7. facilitates case preparation and presentation
  108. What are the purposes of intelligence analysis? (Eight purposes)
    8. facilitates post-investigative analysis
  109. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    1. planning
  110. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    2. researching
  111. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    3. collecting
  112. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    4. requesting
  113. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    5. evaluating ( reliability, relevancy, timeliness, accuracy)
  114. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    6. collating
  115. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    7. examining
  116. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    8. derive meaning
  117. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    9. reporting/briefing
  118. what are the elements of analysis?
    10. recommending
  119. what are the three types of analysis?
    • 1. strategic
    • 2. tactical
    • 3. operational
  120. What are the benefits of strategic analysis? ( Three examples)
    • , 1. Supports enforcement policy and plans
    • 2. identifies trends and/or patterns
    • 3. ascertained the scope of criminal organization, infrastructure activities, harms and geography
  121. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    • 1. Support the police executive
    • 2. develop and maintain information on OC groups, and suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities
    • 3. monitor the potential for criminal activity
    • 4. developed indications and warnings intelligence ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, corruption)
    • 5. assist criminal groups/organizations propensity/potential for violence, economic growth/expansion, recruiting, mobility and corruption
    • 6.  support intelligence and investigative targeting
    • 7.  delineate the criminal/terrorist infrastructure and prioritize for targeting
    • 8. support law enforcement databases
  122. what are the benefits of tactical analysis? ( Two examples)
    • 1.  supports meaning or inferences about entities ( and persons, businesses, organizations, events) and circumstances.
    • 2.  Focus is on and supports immediate law enforcement objectives/issues.
  123. how does technical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    • 1. Supports the police executive
    • 2. develop and maintain information on OC groups, suspected terror/supporters and their activities in
    • 3. support intelligence and investigative targeting
    • 4.  provide support in crisis situations
    • 5. monitor the potential for criminal activity
    • 6. conduct counterintelligence
    • 7. developed indications and warnings ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, and corruption)
    • 8.  support law enforcement databases
  124. what are the benefits of operational/investigative analysis? ( Three examples)
    • 1. support major investigations
    • 2. support case management, case preparation, and presentation
    • 3. developed intelligence information ( post seizure analysis)
  125. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)
    • 1. Develop and maintain informational OC groups,  suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities
    • 2. support intelligence and investigative targeting
    • 3. provide support in crisis situations
    • 4. monitor the potential for criminal activity
    • 5. develop indications and warnings ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, corruption)
    • 6. supports law enforcement intelligence databases
  126. What is needed to structure and intelligence analysis unit? ( Eight parts)
    1.Policy and procedure

    2. supervisor

    • 3. analysts -  strategic, tactical, operational/investigative
    •          - education
    •          - training
    •          - core competencies
    •          -  responsibilities
    •          - assignments

    4. equipment -  basic office supplies,  office furniture and space, computers- desktop and laptops, telephone and fax

    5.  files -  research and analysis

    6. Library -  reference and training materials

    • 7.  access- CJIS  data,  intelligence files reports, invesagative files,  agency personnel,  other law enforcement agencies
    • 8.  professional associations- IALEIA, MAGLEOCLEN, LEIU, ASC
  127. education-  training- core competencies-
     give examples of core competencies (  three total)
    • 1. analytical
    • 2. judgment
    • 3. research capabilities
  128. what are skills and capacities good analysts possess? ( 11 examples, don't need all examples just a few)
    • 1. good writing skills
    • 2. good oral skills
    • 3. computer skills
    • 4. possess professionalism/liaison
    • 5. flexibility/adaptability
    • 6. capacity/desire to learn
    • 7. possess initiative/motivation
    • 8.  ability to organize, plan and prioritize
    • 9.  knowledge of current events
    • 10.  coaching/teaching skills
    • 11.  to operate under minimum supervision
  129. what are some good traits of an intelligence unit supervisor? ( 10 examples,  do not need all the examples)
    • 1. analytical supervisors must understand intelligence and analysis ( organization, activity, and product)
    • 2. encourage critical thinking ( be evaluative)
    • 3. discourage co-optation but encourage engaging the collectors
    • 4. encourage analysts into the field
    • 5. encourage further education and training
    • 6. monitor and coach analysts
    • 7. create in-house trainers and training
    • 8. demand professionalism
    • 9. develop standards
    • 10. market  your analysis ( must market themselves)
  130. Criminal threat analysis
  131. what is a threat?
    An expression of intention to inflict evil, injury or damage. Something that threatens.
  132. What is an assessment?
    Appraisal; a determination of the importance, size or value; estimate. The evaluation and interpretation of measurements and other information to provide a basis for decision-making.
  133. What is risk?
    The possibility of loss or injury; a dangerous event or factor; the degree of probability of such loss; a person or thing that is a specified hazard; (verb)  to exposed to a hazard or danger.
  134. What are two critical principles of threat assessment?
    • 1. Not all threats are equal.
    • 2.  most partners will not carry out the threat, but all threats are taken seriously
  135. what is the purpose of developing threat assessments?
    • 1. to develop intelligence information, a thorough description of a state of affairs, on threatening entities.
    • 2. to determine physical protection requirements.
    • 3. to determine enforcement action

     this implies the constant monitoring of intelligence and enforcement sources to keep abreast of the capabilities and intentions of adversaries, both criminal and terrorist.
  136. The threat assessment is a strategic intelligence report that is tactical implications,  What are the technical implications? ( three implications)
    • 1.activate and/or enhance physical protection requirements.
    • 2. Take enforcement action.
    • 3. Aggressively monitor the situation.
  137. There are significant components to look for when reading reports and research,  what are these components? (Nine components)
    • 1. corruption
    • 2.  violence
    • 3. sophistication
    • 4. continuity
    • 5. structure
    • 6. discipline
    • 7.  multiple criminal enterprises- supporting infrastructure
    • 8. legitimate business(es)-  supporting infrastructure
    • 9.  bonding( internal and external)
  138. What are the threat levels? (Five levels)
    1.  severe threat: encompasses all five harms, emphasis on violence and societal harms.

    2.  High threat:  encompasses violence with additional harms.

    3. Elevated threat:  encompasses at least societal harms.

    4.  Guarded threat:  encompasses any combination of economic, psychological and community harms.

    5.  low threat: psychological harm.
  139. What are the four types of threats?
    • 1. direct
    • 2. indirect
    • 3. veiled
    • 4. conditional
  140. what is a direct threat?
    this identifies a specific act against a specific target and it's communicated or delivered in a straightforward, clear and explicit manner. " I'm going to place a bomb in police headquarters"
  141. was an indirect threat?
    this a vague unclear and ambiguous committee case in. The plan, intended victim, motivation and other aspects of the threat are masked or equivocal. " If I wanted to I could kill everyone at police headquarters."
  142. It was a veiled threat?
    this type implies but does not explicitly threaten violence. It clearly hints at a possible violent act, believes to the potential victim to interpret the message. " We would be much better off without you around anymore"
  143. what is a conditional threat?
    this type warns that a violent act will occur unless certain demands or terms are met. This is often observed in extortion and loansharking cases. " If you don't pay me 1000 a week, your deli will be ashes"
  144. What is reason? ( Five examples)
    • 1.( noun)  basis or cause, as for some belief, action, fact or event.
    • 2. A statement presented in justification or explanation of a belief or action
    • 3. sound judgment; good sense.
    • 4. Logic. The premise of an argument.
    • 5. (Verb)  to form conclusions, judgments, or inferences from facts premises.
  145. Developing intelligence information implies -
    Taking raw data or information collected and placing it into a context that goes beyond the face value of the collected information
  146. the raw  information/data maybe characterized as _____,________,_________,Or _______.  it is from these elements at the meeting intelligence drawn
    • 1. facts
    • 2. opinions
    • 3. arguments
    • 4. premises
  147. what is an inference?
    An inference is a statement or series of statements, paragraphs, that go beyond the facts, opinions, arguments and premises i.g. raw data, designed to develop specific and accurate knowledge concentrating the past, present future.
  148. what are the four types of inferences?
    • 1. hypothesis
    • 2. conclusion
    • 3. prediction
    • 4. estimate
  149. what is a Hypothesis?
    it is a theory, or tentative assumption. A  Hypothesis has to be tested related to being true or false.
  150. was is a conclusion?
    this is the result of two or more facts or propositions
  151. was a prediction?
    this is a forecast; a statement declaring an event in advance.
  152. What is an estimate?
    this is an appraisal; a tentative judgment or an approximate value, worth or significance
  153. what are two examples of the way inferences are developed?
    inductively and deductively
  154. what is inductive thinking/reasoning?
    this is taking specific information and arriving at a general statement. ( making a mountain out of a mole hill.)

     Example: if a  Carnation is red, it is a flower. If a rose is red is a flower. Therefore: If a car is red, is also a flower
  155. What is deductive thinking/reasoning?
    this is taking general information and arriving at a specific statement ( identifying the perpetrator of a crime.)

     Example:  all FDLE  officers where 9mm Sig Sauers while on duty.  John Smith is an FDLE  officer. John Smith was a 9mm Sig Sauer when on duty.
  156. what are the differences between the two?
    • Inductive
    • 1. inferences that go beyond the raw data hence there is opportunity for discovery and prediction.
    • 2.  risk: if the raw data are true, the inference may or may not be true.
    • 3.  Requires a probability assessment.
    • 4. Specific to a general statement.
    • 5. Supports criminal intelligence development

    •  deductive
    • 1. inference does not go beyond the raw data and it cannot arrive at something new.
    • 2. Risk:  if the raw data are true, inference must be true.
    • 3.  Does not require a probability assessment.
    • 4.  General to specific statement.
    • 5.  Supports criminal investigations ( proof beyond a reasonable doubt)
  157. what should you do when developing an inference?  ( seven parts)
    • 1. use applicable and relevant information.
    • 2. Describe, categorize and integrate fragmented information.
    • 3. Evaluate the information for accuracy and timeliness ( goes to the issue of relevancy).
    • 4. Develop premises ( statements of meaning).
    • 5. Formulate (alternative)  inference(s) - hypothesis, conclusion, prediction, estimate.
    • 6. Use a probability statement.
    • 7. Avoid logical fallacies.

     Remember, when an analyst is involved in tactical or strategic intelligence analysis, s/he uses inductive reasoning for the most part. On the other hand, for operational analysis, the analyst may start thinking inductively,  bubble think more deductively as the investigation progresses.
  158. when disseminating an inference, attempt to communicate with the basic interrogatives -  what are these interrogatives?
    Who, what, where, when, why and how
  159. what is a probability assessment?
    a probability assessment implies a degree of certainty in that an event occurred, is occurring ( or that a condition exists), or will occur.  It also implies a confidence in the information relative to the hypothesis, conclusion, production or estimate that is being presented.
  160. What are the sources of a probability assessment ?
    • 1. relative frequency of past events
    • 2.  theoretical estimation
    • 3.  subjective estimation
  161. what is Relative frequency of past events?
    this type of data is represented by team sports win-loss records, batting averages, pass completions, surveillance data, toll data, and financial data.  For example, how many times was a " bad actor"  observed at specific locations, by date, time of day and duration?  We are interested in patterns of behavior. This facilitates pattern analysis and assists in recognizing trends and is used as a basis in making predictions ( once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; thrice is the beginning of trend.)
  162. What is a theoretical estimation ?
    this is akin to a rolling the dice and hoping for a specific outcome; card counting; predicting burglaries, robberies and rapes for  example based upon the potential targets in a given area, employing temporal data, joint and conditional probability. This is useful in criminal analysis.
  163. What is subjective estimation?
    First, important to understand, this is not an ball patterns, that frequency data or mathematical formula. Subjective estimation is based on facts, experience and knowledge ( expertise, knowing the actors, the environment, criminal activity and enterprise structure).  it boils down to integrating information making a sound, rational, mature subject to judgment.  Yet, remember, you must still think rationally, i.e.  inductively or deductively.   Being able to employ a subjective judgment confidently implies that one has acquired a body of knowledge about a subject or issue being examined.
  164. What is the "no man's land" of intelligence?
    this is all about sticking your reputation; sticking your neck out; demonstrating your knowledge about the subject or issue being examined. Assigning a probability (assessment) to a statement ( hypothesis, conclusion, prediction, estimate, the informed judgment, the single fact or the best guess),  one is indicating the level of likelihood that a situation exists with a situation/event occurred/existed, or will occur/exist in the future. There is risk involved here.
  165. probability scale
    • 1.00  or 100%  event/situation will occur/does not exist (total certainty)
    •  .90 or 90%
    •  .80 or 80%
    •  .70 or 70%  more likely to occur than not
    •  .60 or 60%
    •  .50 or 50%  event/situation may/may not occur/exist
    •  .40 or 40%
    •  .30 or 30%  less likely to occur then occur/exist
    •  .20 or 20%
    •  .10 or 10%
    •  0.00 or 0%  event/situation will occur/does not exist (total certainty)

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