Law enforcement analysis 3 (continued)

1. planning

2. researching

3. collecting

4. requesting

5. evaluating ( reliability, relevancy, timeliness, accuracy)

6. collating

7. examining

8. derive meaning

9. reporting/briefing

10. recommending

• 1. strategic
• 2. tactical
• 3. operational

• 1. Supports enforcement policy and plans
• 2. identifies trends and/or patterns
• 3. ascertained the scope of criminal organization, infrastructure activities, harms and geography

1. Support the police executive

2. develop and maintain information on OC groups, and suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities

3. monitor the potential for criminal activity

4. developed indications and warnings intelligence ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, corruption)

5. Accesses criminal groups/organizations propensity/potential for violence, economic growth/expansion, recruiting, mobility and corruption

6.  support intelligence and investigative targeting

7.  delineate the criminal/terrorist infrastructure and prioritize for targeting

8. support law enforcement databases

1.  supports meaning or inferences about entities ( and persons, businesses, organizations, events) and circumstances.

2.  Focus is on and supports immediate law enforcement objectives/issues.

1. Supports the police executive

2. develop and maintain information on OC groups, suspected terror/supporters and their activities in

3. support intelligence and investigative targeting

4.  provide support in crisis situations

5. monitor the potential for criminal activity

6. conduct counterintelligence

7. developed indications and warnings ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, and corruption)

8.  support law enforcement databases

• 1. support major investigations
• 2. support case management, case preparation, and presentation
• 3. developed intelligence information ( post seizure analysis)

1. Develop and maintain informational OC groups,  suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities

2. support intelligence and investigative targeting

3. provide support in crisis situations

4. monitor the potential for criminal activity

5. develop indications and warnings intelligence ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, corruption)

6. supports law enforcement intelligence databases

1.Policy and procedure

2. supervisor

• 3. analysts-  strategic, tactical, operational/investigative         
• - education         
• - training         
• - core competencies         
• -  responsibilities         
• - assignments

4. equipment -  basic office supplies,  office furniture and space, computers- desktop and laptops, telephone and fax

5.  files -  research and analysis

6. Library -  reference and training materials

7.  access- CJIS  data,  intelligence files reports, invesagative files,  agency personnel,  other law enforcement agencies

8. professional associations- IALEIA, MAGLEOCLEN, LEIU, ASC

• 1. analytical
• 2. judgment
• 3. research capabilities

1. good writing skills

2. good oral skills

3. computer skills

4. possess professionalism/liaison

5. flexibility/adaptability

6. capacity/desire to learn

7. possess initiative/motivation

8.  ability to organize, plan and prioritize

9.  knowledge of current events

10.  coaching/teaching skills

11.  to operate under minimum supervision

1. analytical supervisors must understand intelligence and analysis ( organization, activity, and product)

2. encourage critical thinking ( be evaluative)

3. discourage co-optation but encourage engaging the collectors

4. encourage analysts into the field

5. encourage further education and training

6. monitor and coach analysts

7. create in-house trainers and training

8. demand professionalism

9. develop standards

10. market  your analysis ( must market themselves)

An expression of intention to inflict evil, injury or damage. Something that threatens.

Appraisal; a determination of the importance, size or value; estimate. The evaluation and interpretation of measurements and other information to provide a basis for decision-making.

The possibility of loss or injury; a dangerous event or factor; the degree of probability of such loss; a person or thing that is a specified hazard; (verb)  to exposed to a hazard or danger.

• 1. Not all threats are equal.
• 2.  most partners will not carry out the threat, but all threats are taken seriously

1. to develop intelligence information, a thorough description of a state of affairs, on threatening entities.

2. to determine physical protection requirements.

3. to determine enforcement action this implies the constant monitoring of intelligence and enforcement sources to keep abreast of the capabilities and intentions of adversaries, both criminal and terrorist.

1.activate and/or enhance physical protection requirements.

2. Take enforcement action.

3. Aggressively monitor the situation.

1. corruption

2. violence

3. sophistication

4. continuity

5. structure

6. discipline

7.  multiple criminal enterprises- supporting infrastructure

8. legitimate business(es)-  supporting infrastructure

9.  bonding( internal and external)

1.  severe threat: encompasses all five harms, emphasis on violence and societal harms.

2.  High threat:  encompasses violence with additional harms.

3. Elevated threat:  encompasses at least societal harms.

4.  Guarded threat:  encompasses any combination of economic, psychological and community harms.

5.  low threat: psychological harm.

1. direct

2. indirect

3. veiled

4. conditional

this identifies a specific act against a specific target and it's communicated or delivered in a straightforward, clear and explicit manner. " I'm going to place a bomb in police headquarters"

this a vague unclear and ambiguous committee case in. The plan, intended victim, motivation and other aspects of the threat are masked or equivocal. " If I wanted to I could kill everyone at police headquarters."

this type implies but does not explicitly threaten violence. It clearly hints at a possible violent act, believes to the potential victim to interpret the message. " We would be much better off without you around anymore"

this type warns that a violent act will occur unless certain demands or terms are met. This is often observed in extortion and loansharking cases. " If you don't pay me 1000 a week, your deli will be ashes"

1.( noun)  basis or cause, as for some belief, action, fact or event.

2. A statement presented in justification or explanation of a belief or action

3. sound judgment; good sense.

4. Logic. The premise of an argument.

5. (Verb)  to form conclusions, judgments, or inferences from facts premises.

Taking raw data or information collected and placing it into a context that goes beyond the face value of the collected information

1. facts

2. opinions

3. arguments

4. premises

An inference is a statement or series of statements, paragraphs, that go beyond the facts, opinions, arguments and premises i.g. raw data, designed to develop specific and accurate knowledge concentrating the past, present future.

1. hypothesis

2. conclusion

3. prediction

4. estimate

it is a theory, or tentative assumption. A  Hypothesis has to be tested related to being true or false.

this is the result of two or more facts or propositions

this is a forecast; a statement declaring an event in advance.

this is an appraisal; a tentative judgment or an approximate value, worth or significance

inductively and deductively

this is taking specific information and arriving at a general statement. ( making a mountain out of a mole hill.) 

Example: if a  Carnation is red, it is a flower. If a rose is red is a flower. Therefore: If a car is red, is also a flower

this is taking general information and arriving at a specific statement ( identifying the perpetrator of a crime.) 

Example:  all FDLE  officers where 9mm Sig Sauers while on duty.  John Smith is an FDLE  officer. John Smith was a 9mm Sig Sauer when on duty.

• Inductive
• 1. inferences that go beyond the raw data hence there is opportunity for discovery and prediction.
• 2.  risk: if the raw data are true, the inference may or may not be true.
• 3.  Requires a probability assessment.
• 4. Specific to a general statement.
• 5. Supports criminal
• intelligence development deductive

• Deductive
• 1. inference does not go beyond the raw data and it cannot arrive at something new.
• 2. Risk:  if the raw data are true, inference must be true.
• 3.  Does not require a probability assessment.
• 4.  General to specific statement.
• 5.  Supports criminal investigations ( proof beyond a reasonable doubt)

1. use applicable and relevant information.

2. Describe, categorize and integrate fragmented information.

3. Evaluate the information for accuracy and timeliness ( goes to the issue of relevancy).

4. Develop premises ( statements of meaning).

5. Formulate (alternative)  inference(s) - hypothesis, conclusion, prediction, estimate.

6. Use a probability statement.

7. Avoid logical fallacies. Remember, when an analyst is involved in tactical or strategic intelligence analysis, s/he uses inductive reasoning for the most part. On the other hand, for operational analysis, the analyst may start thinking inductively,  bubble think more deductively as the investigation progresses.

Who, what, where, when, why and how

a probability assessment implies a degree of certainty in that an event occurred, is occurring ( or that a condition exists), or will occur.  It also implies a confidence in the information relative to the hypothesis, conclusion, production or estimate that is being presented.

• 1. relative frequency of past events
• 2.  theoretical estimation
• 3.  subjective estimation

this type of data is represented by team sports win-loss records, batting averages, pass completions, surveillance data, toll data, and financial data.  For example, how many times was a " bad actor"  observed at specific locations, by date, time of day and duration?  We are interested in patterns of behavior. This facilitates pattern analysis and assists in recognizing trends and is used as a basis in making predictions ( once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; thrice is the beginning of trend.)

this is akin to a rolling the dice and hoping for a specific outcome; card counting; predicting burglaries, robberies and rapes for  example based upon the potential targets in a given area, employing temporal data, joint and conditional probability. This is useful in criminal analysis.

First, important to understand, this is not an ball patterns, that frequency data or mathematical formula. Subjective estimation is based on facts, experience and knowledge ( expertise, knowing the actors, the environment, criminal activity and enterprise structure).  it boils down to integrating information making a sound, rational, mature subject to judgment.  Yet, remember, you must still think rationally, i.e.  inductively or deductively.   Being able to employ a subjective judgment confidently implies that one has acquired a body of knowledge about a subject or issue being examined.

this is all about sticking your reputation; sticking your neck out; demonstrating your knowledge about the subject or issue being examined. Assigning a probability (assessment) to a statement ( hypothesis, conclusion, prediction, estimate, the informed judgment, the single fact or the best guess),  one is indicating the level of likelihood that a situation exists with a situation/event occurred/existed, or will occur/exist in the future. There is risk involved here.

• 1.00  or 100%  event/situation will occur/does not exist (total certainty) 
• .90 or 90% 
• .80 or 80% 
• .70 or 70%  more likely to occur than not .60 or60% 
• .50 or 50%  event/situation may/may not occur/exist 
• .40 or 40% .
• 30 or 30%  less likely to occur then occur/exist 
• .20 or 20% 
• .10 or 10% 
• 0.00 or 0%  event/situation will occur/does not exist (total certainty)