Law enforcement analysis 3 (continued)

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dh611485
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Law enforcement analysis 3 (continued)
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2013-10-19 15:17:28
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Law enforcement analysis continued
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Law enforcement analysis 3 (continued)
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  1. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    1. planning
  2. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    2. researching
  3. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    3. collecting
  4. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)

    4. requesting
  5. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    5. evaluating ( reliability, relevancy, timeliness, accuracy)
  6. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    6. collating
  7. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    7. examining
  8. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    8. derive meaning
  9. what are the elements of analysis? ( 10 elements)
    9. reporting/briefing
  10. what are the elements of analysis?
    10. recommending
  11. what are the three types of analysis?
    • 1. strategic
    • 2. tactical
    • 3. operational
  12. What are the benefits of strategic analysis? ( Three examples)
    • 1. Supports enforcement policy and plans
    • 2. identifies trends and/or patterns
    • 3. ascertained the scope of criminal organization, infrastructure activities, harms and geography
  13. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    1. Support the police executive
  14. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    2. develop and maintain information on OC groups, and suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities
  15. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    3. monitor the potential for criminal activity
  16. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    4. developed indications and warnings intelligence ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, corruption)
  17. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    5. Accesses criminal groups/organizations propensity/potential for violence, economic growth/expansion, recruiting, mobility and corruption
  18. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    6.  support intelligence and investigative targeting
  19. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    7.  delineate the criminal/terrorist infrastructure and prioritize for targeting
  20. how do strategic analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( eight reasons)
    8. support law enforcement databases
  21. what are the benefits of tactical analysis? ( Two examples)
    1.  supports meaning or inferences about entities ( and persons, businesses, organizations, events) and circumstances.

    2.  Focus is on and supports immediate law enforcement objectives/issues.
  22. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    1. Supports the police executive
  23. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    2. develop and maintain information on OC groups, suspected terror/supporters and their activities in
  24. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    3. support intelligence and investigative targeting
  25. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    4.  provide support in crisis situations
  26. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    5. monitor the potential for criminal activity
  27. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    6. conduct counterintelligence
  28. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    7. developed indications and warnings ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, and corruption)
  29. how does tactical analysis support the purposes of intelligence? (eight reasons)
    8.  support law enforcement databases
  30. what are the benefits of operational/investigative analysis? ( Three examples)
    • 1. support major investigations
    • 2. support case management, case preparation, and presentation
    • 3. developed intelligence information ( post seizure analysis)
  31. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)
    1. Develop and maintain informational OC groups,  suspected terrorists/supporters and their activities
  32. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)
    2. support intelligence and investigative targeting
  33. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)
    3. provide support in crisis situations
  34. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)
    4. monitor the potential for criminal activity
  35. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)

    5. develop indications and warnings intelligence ( competitiveness, violence, criminal enterprises, corruption)
  36. How does operational/investigative analysis support the purposes of intelligence? ( six examples)
    6. supports law enforcement intelligence databases
  37. What is needed to structure and intelligence analysis unit? ( Eight parts)
    1.Policy and procedure

    2. supervisor

    • 3. analysts-  strategic, tactical, operational/investigative         
    • - education         
    • - training         
    • - core competencies         
    • -  responsibilities         
    • - assignments

    4. equipment -  basic office supplies,  office furniture and space, computers- desktop and laptops, telephone and fax

    5.  files -  research and analysis

    6. Library -  reference and training materials

    7.  access- CJIS  data,  intelligence files reports, invesagative files,  agency personnel,  other law enforcement agencies

    8. professional associations- IALEIA, MAGLEOCLEN, LEIU, ASC
  38. education-  training- core competencies- give examples of core competencies (  three total)
    • 1. analytical
    • 2. judgment
    • 3. research capabilities
  39. what are skills and capacities good analysts possess? ( 11 examples, don't need all examples just a few)
    1. good writing skills

    2. good oral skills

    3. computer skills

    4. possess professionalism/liaison

    5. flexibility/adaptability

    6. capacity/desire to learn

    7. possess initiative/motivation

    8.  ability to organize, plan and prioritize

    9.  knowledge of current events

    10.  coaching/teaching skills

    11.  to operate under minimum supervision
  40. what are some good traits of an intelligence unit supervisor? ( 10 examples,  do not need all the examples)
    1. analytical supervisors must understand intelligence and analysis ( organization, activity, and product)

    2. encourage critical thinking ( be evaluative)

    3. discourage co-optation but encourage engaging the collectors

    4. encourage analysts into the field

    5. encourage further education and training

    6. monitor and coach analysts

    7. create in-house trainers and training

    8. demand professionalism

    9. develop standards

    10. market  your analysis ( must market themselves)
  41. Criminal threat analysis
  42. what is a threat?
    An expression of intention to inflict evil, injury or damage. Something that threatens.
  43. What is an assessment?
    Appraisal; a determination of the importance, size or value; estimate. The evaluation and interpretation of measurements and other information to provide a basis for decision-making.
  44. What is risk?
    The possibility of loss or injury; a dangerous event or factor; the degree of probability of such loss; a person or thing that is a specified hazard; (verb)  to exposed to a hazard or danger.
  45. What are two critical principles of threat assessment?
    • 1. Not all threats are equal.
    • 2.  most partners will not carry out the threat, but all threats are taken seriously
  46. what is the purpose of developing threat assessments?
    1. to develop intelligence information, a thorough description of a state of affairs, on threatening entities.

    2. to determine physical protection requirements.

    3. to determine enforcement action this implies the constant monitoring of intelligence and enforcement sources to keep abreast of the capabilities and intentions of adversaries, both criminal and terrorist.
  47. The threat assessment is a strategic intelligence report that is tactical implications,  What are the technical implications? ( three implications)
    1.activate and/or enhance physical protection requirements.

    2. Take enforcement action.

    3. Aggressively monitor the situation.
  48. There are significant components to look for when reading reports and research,  what are these components? (Nine components)
    1. corruption

    2. violence

    3. sophistication

    4. continuity

    5. structure

    6. discipline

    7.  multiple criminal enterprises- supporting infrastructure

    8. legitimate business(es)-  supporting infrastructure

    9.  bonding( internal and external)
  49. What are the threat levels? (Five levels)
    1.  severe threat: encompasses all five harms, emphasis on violence and societal harms.

    2.  High threat:  encompasses violence with additional harms.

    3. Elevated threat:  encompasses at least societal harms.

    4.  Guarded threat:  encompasses any combination of economic, psychological and community harms.

    5.  low threat: psychological harm.
  50. What are the four types of threats?
    1. direct

    2. indirect

    3. veiled

    4. conditional
  51. what is a direct threat?
    this identifies a specific act against a specific target and it's communicated or delivered in a straightforward, clear and explicit manner. " I'm going to place a bomb in police headquarters"
  52. was an indirect threat?
    this a vague unclear and ambiguous committee case in. The plan, intended victim, motivation and other aspects of the threat are masked or equivocal. " If I wanted to I could kill everyone at police headquarters."
  53. It was a veiled threat?
    this type implies but does not explicitly threaten violence. It clearly hints at a possible violent act, believes to the potential victim to interpret the message. " We would be much better off without you around anymore"
  54. what is a conditional threat?
    this type warns that a violent act will occur unless certain demands or terms are met. This is often observed in extortion and loansharking cases. " If you don't pay me 1000 a week, your deli will be ashes"
  55. What is reason? ( Five examples)
    1.( noun)  basis or cause, as for some belief, action, fact or event.

    2. A statement presented in justification or explanation of a belief or action

    3. sound judgment; good sense.

    4. Logic. The premise of an argument.

    5. (Verb)  to form conclusions, judgments, or inferences from facts premises.
  56. Developing intelligence information implies -
    Taking raw data or information collected and placing it into a context that goes beyond the face value of the collected information
  57. the raw  information/data maybe characterized as _____,________,_________,Or _______.  it is from these elements at the meeting intelligence drawn
    1. facts

    2. opinions

    3. arguments

    4. premises
  58. what is an inference?
    An inference is a statement or series of statements, paragraphs, that go beyond the facts, opinions, arguments and premises i.g. raw data, designed to develop specific and accurate knowledge concentrating the past, present future.
  59. what are the four types of inferences?
    1. hypothesis

    2. conclusion

    3. prediction

    4. estimate
  60. what is a Hypothesis?
    it is a theory, or tentative assumption. A  Hypothesis has to be tested related to being true or false.
  61. what is a conclusion?
    this is the result of two or more facts or propositions
  62. was a prediction?
    this is a forecast; a statement declaring an event in advance.
  63. What is an estimate?
    this is an appraisal; a tentative judgment or an approximate value, worth or significance
  64. what are two examples of the way inferences are developed?
    inductively and deductively
  65. what is inductive thinking/reasoning?
    this is taking specific information and arriving at a general statement. ( making a mountain out of a mole hill.) 

    Example: if a  Carnation is red, it is a flower. If a rose is red is a flower. Therefore: If a car is red, is also a flower
  66. What is deductive thinking/reasoning?
    this is taking general information and arriving at a specific statement ( identifying the perpetrator of a crime.) 

    Example:  all FDLE  officers where 9mm Sig Sauers while on duty.  John Smith is an FDLE  officer. John Smith was a 9mm Sig Sauer when on duty.
  67. what are the differences between the two?
    • Inductive
    • 1. inferences that go beyond the raw data hence there is opportunity for discovery and prediction.
    • 2.  risk: if the raw data are true, the inference may or may not be true.
    • 3.  Requires a probability assessment.
    • 4. Specific to a general statement.
    • 5. Supports criminal
    • intelligence development deductive

    • Deductive
    • 1. inference does not go beyond the raw data and it cannot arrive at something new.
    • 2. Risk:  if the raw data are true, inference must be true.
    • 3.  Does not require a probability assessment.
    • 4.  General to specific statement.
    • 5.  Supports criminal investigations ( proof beyond a reasonable doubt)
  68. what should you do when developing an inference?  ( seven parts)
    1. use applicable and relevant information.

    2. Describe, categorize and integrate fragmented information.

    3. Evaluate the information for accuracy and timeliness ( goes to the issue of relevancy).

    4. Develop premises ( statements of meaning).

    5. Formulate (alternative)  inference(s) - hypothesis, conclusion, prediction, estimate.

    6. Use a probability statement.

    7. Avoid logical fallacies. Remember, when an analyst is involved in tactical or strategic intelligence analysis, s/he uses inductive reasoning for the most part. On the other hand, for operational analysis, the analyst may start thinking inductively,  bubble think more deductively as the investigation progresses.
  69. when disseminating an inference, attempt to communicate with the basic interrogatives -  what are these interrogatives?
    Who, what, where, when, why and how
  70. what is a probability assessment?
    a probability assessment implies a degree of certainty in that an event occurred, is occurring ( or that a condition exists), or will occur.  It also implies a confidence in the information relative to the hypothesis, conclusion, production or estimate that is being presented.
  71. What are the sources of a probability assessment ?
    • 1. relative frequency of past events
    • 2.  theoretical estimation
    • 3.  subjective estimation
  72. what is Relative frequency of past events?
    this type of data is represented by team sports win-loss records, batting averages, pass completions, surveillance data, toll data, and financial data.  For example, how many times was a " bad actor"  observed at specific locations, by date, time of day and duration?  We are interested in patterns of behavior. This facilitates pattern analysis and assists in recognizing trends and is used as a basis in making predictions ( once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; thrice is the beginning of trend.)
  73. What is a theoretical estimation ?
    this is akin to a rolling the dice and hoping for a specific outcome; card counting; predicting burglaries, robberies and rapes for  example based upon the potential targets in a given area, employing temporal data, joint and conditional probability. This is useful in criminal analysis.
  74. What is subjective estimation ?
    First, important to understand, this is not an ball patterns, that frequency data or mathematical formula. Subjective estimation is based on facts, experience and knowledge ( expertise, knowing the actors, the environment, criminal activity and enterprise structure).  it boils down to integrating information making a sound, rational, mature subject to judgment.  Yet, remember, you must still think rationally, i.e.  inductively or deductively.   Being able to employ a subjective judgment confidently implies that one has acquired a body of knowledge about a subject or issue being examined.
  75. What is the "no man's land" of intelligence?
    this is all about sticking your reputation; sticking your neck out; demonstrating your knowledge about the subject or issue being examined. Assigning a probability (assessment) to a statement ( hypothesis, conclusion, prediction, estimate, the informed judgment, the single fact or the best guess),  one is indicating the level of likelihood that a situation exists with a situation/event occurred/existed, or will occur/exist in the future. There is risk involved here.
  76. probability scale
    • 1.00  or 100%  event/situation will occur/does not exist (total certainty) 
    • .90 or 90% 
    • .80 or 80% 
    • .70 or 70%  more likely to occur than not .60 or60% 
    • .50 or 50%  event/situation may/may not occur/exist 
    • .40 or 40% .
    • 30 or 30%  less likely to occur then occur/exist 
    • .20 or 20% 
    • .10 or 10% 
    • 0.00 or 0%  event/situation will occur/does not exist (total certainty)

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