An auditor established a $60,000 tolerable misstatement for an asset with an account balance of $1,000,000. The auditor selected a sample of every twentieth item from the population that represented the asset account balance and discovered overstatements of $3,700 and understatements of $200. Under these circumstances, the auditor most likely would conclude that
There is an unacceptably high risk that the actual misstatements in the population exceed the tolerable misstatement because the total projected misstatement is more than the tolerable misstatement.
By taking every twentieth item, the auditor chose a sample containing 5% (1 ÷ 20) of the items in the population. If the sample contains $3,700 of overstatements and $200 of understatements, the projected overstatements and understatements are $74,000 and $4,000, respectively, a projected misstatement of $78,000. Furthermore, sampling risk should be considered. The allowance for sampling risk calculated for a specified level of confidence is an interval around the sample result that is expected to contain the true amount of misstatement. The upper limit of this interval equals $78,000 plus the calculated allowance. Accordingly, given that projected misstatement exceeds tolerable misstatement, the auditor most likely will conclude that the risk that actual misstatement exceeds tolerable misstatement is unacceptably high.