# Bayesian Probability

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 Author: mlbcasey ID: 295531 Filename: Bayesian Probability Updated: 2015-02-10 19:01:40 Tags: Bayesian Folders: Description: Bayesian analysis Show Answers:

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1. Important facts to remember for Bayesian analysis:  XL lethal disease
In X linked lethal diseases, those who are affected don't go on to reproduce.

In the absence of fam hx...

...the prior probability of the mother (of an affected child) being a carrier is 2/3.

...the prior probability of the mother being a non carrier is 1/3.  This would mean the disease is de novo.

...the prior probability of the grandmother (of an affected child) being a carrier is 1/3.

...the prior probability of the aunt of an affected child, being a carrier is 1/6.

2. Important facts to remember for Bayesian analysis:  AR disorders
An unaffected sibling of someone who is affected with an AR trait, has a 2/3 chance of being a carrier.
3. Important facts to remember for Bayesian analysis:  Determining Zigocity
70% of twins are dizygotic

30% of twins are monozygotic
4. Important facts to remember for Bayesian analysis:  Determining paternity
You must assume that paternity/nonpaternity are equally likely (50/50).

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