CFA Study Session 1.2 - TMV

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CFA Study Session 1.2 - TMV
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CFA Study Session TMV
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CFA Study Session 1.2 - TMV
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  1. Compound Interest
    Interest on interest
  2. Future Value (FV)
    Projecting cash flows forward on the basis of an appropriate compound interest rate to the end of the investment's life.
  3. Present Value (PV)
    Brings cash flows from investment back to beginning of the investment's life based on appropriate compound rate of return.
  4. PV & FV
    Allow for comparing investment alternatives based on investment's cash flows at a common point in time usually at the end of the investment's life (FV) or the beginning of the investment horizon (PV)
  5. Time Line Key Points

    Point 0
    Cash Outflows
    Cash Inflows
    • Point 0 = Cash flow that occurs in the present (Today)
    • Outflows are given a negative sign
    • Inflows are given a positive sign
  6. Discounting
    Process to move cash flows to beginning of time line (computation of Present Value)
  7. Compounding
    Process to move cash flows to end of time line (computation of Future Value)
  8. Time Line Example:

    INSERT IMAGE HERE (PAGE 104)
    Cash flows occur at the end of the period depicted on the time line. End of one period = beginning of next period. 

    • I.e. t=2 = end of second year AND beginning of 3rd year. 
    • Cash flow at beginning of Year 3 same as t=2
  9. Interest Rates
    Measure of time value of money. Risk differences in financial securities lead to differences in equilibrium interest rate.

    ALSO KNOWN AS DISCOUNT RATE

    ALSO KNOWN AS OPPORTUNITY COST OF CURRENT CONSUMPTION
  10. Required Rate of Return
    Equilibrium interest rate. Market rate of return is return that investors and savers require to get them to willingly lend their funds.
  11. Interest Rate Examples

    Discounting:

    vs. 

    Opportunity Cost
    Discounting - If you can burrow funds at 10% interest, you can discount those payments to be made in the future at that rate in order to get their equivalent value in today's dollars.

    Opportunity Cost - If market interest rate on 1 yr securities is 5%, earning an additional 5% is the opportunity forgone by spending the money instead of saving it over that year.
  12. Interest Rate Components (4)
    Nominal Risk Free Rate + Default Risk Premium + liquidity risk Premium + Maturity Risk Premium
  13. Real Risk-Free Rate
    Theoretical risk free rate w/ no inflation expectation.
  14. Nominal Risk Free Rate
    Risk Free rate with inflation built in. Contain inflation premium.

    Nominal Risk Free Rate = Rate on short term t-bills.
  15. Default Risk
    Risk that borrower will not make the promised payments in a timely manner
  16. Liquidity Risk
    Risk of receiving less than fair value for an investment if it must be sold for cash quickly.
  17. Maturity Risk
    Prices for long term more volatile than shorter term. This premium covers the risk of that volatility. (short term bonds vs. long term bonds)
  18. Effective Annual Rate (EAR)
    Rate of interest that investors actually realize as a result of the compounding (i.e. 8% stated annual rate compounded quarterly is actually 2% per quarter which is not exactly equal to 8% annually)

    Represents the annual rate of return actually being earned after adjustments have been made for different compounding periods.

    Greater the compounding periods (i.e. semiannual, quarterly, monthly), the greater the EAR > stated annual rate.
  19. Effective Annual Rate (EAR)

    FORMULA


    • Rate = periodic rate = stated annual return/m
    • m = number of compounding periods in the year.

    Formula helpful when comparing investments that have different compounding periods to allow for apples-to-apples comparison
  20. Future Value of Single Sum

    FORMULA
    Amount which investment will grow if placed in an account paying compound interest. 



    • PV = today's amount
    • I/Y = rate of return per compounding period
    • N = total number of compounding periods
  21. Future value factor / Future value interest factor
    Factor 

    Represents the compounding rate of an investment. This is the value that appears in interest factor tables.
  22. Present Value of a Single Sum

    FORMULA
    Today's value of a cash flow that is to be received at some point in the future. 




    • I/Y = rate of return per compounding period
    • N = total number of compounding periods
  23. Present Value Factor / Present Value interest factor / discount factor
    In the PV equation 

  24. Annuity
    Stream of equal cash flows that occurs at equal intervals over a given period.
  25. Ordinary Annuity
    Most common type of annuity. Cash flows that occur at the end of each compounding period.
  26. Annuity Due
    Payments or receipts occur at the beginning of each period (i.e. first payment is today at t=0)
  27. Future Value of Ordinary Annuity

    CALCULATOR FORMULA

    What is the future value of an ordinary annuity that pays 150 per year at the end of each of the next 15 years given the investment to earn a 7% rate of return
    • N = 15
    • I/Y = 7
    • PMT = -150
    • CPT --> FV 

    = $3,769.35
  28. Present Value of Ordinary Annuity

    CALCULATOR FORMULA

    What is the PV of an annuity that pays $200 per year at the end of each of the next 13 years given a 6% discount rate?
    • N = 13
    • I/Y = 6
    • PMT = -200
    • CPT --> PV = $1,770.54
  29. Present Value of Ordinary Annuity w/ beginning later than t=1

    CALCULATOR FORMULA

    What is the PV of four $100 end-of-year payments if the first payment is to be received three years from today and the appropriate rate of return is 9%
    1. Find present value of annuity as of the end of year 2 (PV2) ; N=4 , I/Y = 9 ; PMT = -100 ; FV = 0 ; CPT --> PV = $323.97

    • 2. Find Present value (t=0) of PV2 from above
    • N = 2 ; I/Y = 9; PMT = 0; FV = -323.97 ; CPT --> PV = PV0 = $272.68
  30. PV Annuity Function on Calculator in END mode
    Gives you the value ONE PERIOD BEFORE THE ANNUITY BEGINS. For example, if the annuity begins at t = 3 (3rd year start), we discount the result for only two years to get present (t=0) value.
  31. PV of Bond's Cash Flows

    CALCULATOR FORMULA

    A bond will make coupon interest payments of 70 euros at the end of each year and will also pay its face value of 1,000 euros at maturity in five years. Discount rate = 8%. What is the PV of the bond's promised cash flows?
    PV = PV of 5 70 euro payments (ordinary annuity) + PV of 1,000 lump sum five years from now. 

    • N = 5
    • PMT = 70
    • I/Y  = 8
    • FV = 1000
    • CPT PV = -960
  32. Future Value of Annuity Due

    CALCULATOR Change
    Have to set calculator to BGN mode (beginning) vs. END mode

    Payments are made at beginning of period, but FV of annuity due is calculated as of the end of the last period.
  33. FV of Annuity Due

    FORMULA


    • FVA_D = FV of annuity due
    • FVA_O = FV of ordinary annuity
  34. FV of Annuity Due

    CALCULATOR FORMULA

    What is the FV of an annuity that pays 100 per year at the beginning of each of next 3 years commencing today. Cash flows invested at annual rate of 10%.
    • MODE = BGN
    • N = 3
    • I/Y = 10
    • PMT = -100
    • CPT --> FV = 364.10
  35. PV of Annuity Due
    With an annuity due, there is one less discounting period since the first cash flow starts at t=0 vs. t=1

    PV of annuity due > PV of ordinary annuity
  36. PV of Annuity Due

    FORMULA


    • PVA_D = PV Annuity Due
    • PVA_O = PV ordinary Annuity
  37. PV of Annuity Due


    CALCULATOR FORMULA

    Given a discount rate of 10%, what is the PV of a 3 year annuity that makes a series of 100 payments at the beginning of the next three years, starting today?
    • Mode = BGN
    • N = 3
    • I/Y = 10
    • PMT = -100
    • CPT --> PVA_D = $273.55
  38. Perpetuity
    Financial instrument that pays fixed amount of money at set intervals forever. (British Consol Bonds and Preferred Stocks)
  39. PV of Perpetuity

    FORMULA


    Fixed periodic cash flow / periodic rate of return
  40. PV of deferred perpetuity

    FORMULA

    Preferred stock will be paid 4.50 dividend in four years and does not pay any dividends in years 1-3. 8% required rate of return. What is PV of deferred perpetuity?
    Perpetuity = 4.5/.08 = 56.25

    56.25 @ t=4

    Discount for remaining 3 periods = 56.25/(1.08)^3 = 44.65
  41. PV of series of unequal cash flows

    CALCULATOR FORMULA
    Insert page 120 from notes
  42. PV and FV with compounding periods <> annual

    Example = quarterly
    Divide the annual stated rate by # periods (i.e. quarterly would divide rate by 4). 

    • Calculator:
    • I/Y = interest rate / 4
    • N = # of years * 4
  43. Loan amortization
    Process of paying off a loan with a series of periodic loan payments. Portion of outstanding loan is paid off (amortized) with each payment.
  44. Loan Payments - Annual

    CALCULATOR CALCULATION

    Company borrows 50k for five years. Bank lends money @ 9% rate and requires that loan be paid off in five equal end of year payments. Calculate payment amount.
    • N = 5
    • I/Y = 9
    • PV = -50000
    • CPT --> PMT = 12,854.62

    (FV = 0 as the loan will be completely paid off in five years)
  45. Loan Payments - Quarterly

    CALCULATOR CALCULATION

    Company borrows 50k for five years. Bank lends money @ 9% rate and requires that loan be paid off in quarterly payments over five year period. Calculate payment amount.
    • N = 5 * 4 = 20
    • I/Y = 9/4 = 2.25
    • PV = -50000
    • CPT --> PMT = 3,132.10
  46. Amortization Schedule
    IMAGE AND INFO FROM PAGE 125
  47. Principal @ interest component of a specific loan payment

    CALCULATION

    Suppose you borrowed 10k @ 10% interest to be paid semiannually over ten years. Calculate the amount of the outstanding balance after the second payment is made.
    • Part 1 - calculate payment
    • N = 20, I/Y = 5, PV = -10,000 CPT --> PMT = 802.43

    Part 2 - Calculate principal vs. int component:

    • Payment 1:
    • Interest = (10,000)(.05) = 500
    • Principal = 802.43 - 500 = 302.43

    • Payment 2
    • Interest = (10,000 - 302.43)(.05) = 484.88
    • Principal = 802.43-484.44 = 317.55

    Remaining Balance = 10,000 - 302.43 - 317.55 = 9,380.02
  48. Compute annuity payment needed to achieve a given FV

    At an expected rate of return of 7%, how much must be deposited at end of each year for the next 15 years to accumulate 3,000?
    • N = 15
    • I/Y = 7
    • FV = +3,000
    • CPT --> PMT = -119.38 (ignore negative)
  49. Compute loan payment

    Payment on loan for 2k repaid equal end of year payments with 6% interest paid over 13 years.
    • N = 13
    • I/Y = 6
    • PV = -2000
    • CPT --> PMT = 225.92
  50. Calculator Sign Convention
    PMT & FV must have different signs or your calculator will give error.
  51. Sales at Acme for the first five years have been 4.5m, 5.7m, 5.3m, 6.9m, and 7.1m. Calculate the compound annual growth rate of the sales over the period.
    • Calculator: 
    • FV = 7.1 ; PV = -4.5 ; N = 4 ; CPT --> I/Y = 12.08%

    Math: (7.1/4.5)^1/4 - 1 = 12.1%

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