Chatper 21

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Author:
damea134
ID:
306378
Filename:
Chatper 21
Updated:
2015-08-14 01:06:09
Tags:
Accuracy Percentages
Folders:
Statistic
Description:
Accuracy of Percentages
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  1. SD of Box 
    Bootstraping Method
    Man wants to run for election wants to know the chances of him winning

    SD of Box can be used using the SD Shortcut Method 

    SD = Square Root (Fraction 1 x Fraction 2)

    Example:

    • #Draws =2500
    • 1328 favored candidate 
    • Ave = .53
    • Ave not in Favor = .47 
    • SD = SQRT(.53 x .47) = about .50
    • SE = (SQRT[2500] x SD) = 50 x .5 = 25

    • Chance error is 25 out of 2500
    • that is less than (25/2500) = 1% 

    He should run for election
  2. Bootstrap
    When sampling from a 0-1 box whose composition is unknow the SD of the box can be estimated by substitution the fractions of 0s and 1's in the sample for the unknown fractions in the box the estimate is good when the sample is reasonably large
  3. Bootsrap method
    25000 students registered students. Estimate sample of university students living at home. 

    Simple Random Sample of 400 students was drawn

    317= were living at home

    The sample percentage = 317/400 x 100% = 79% (estimate for population percent)

    Next use the SD Shortcut to get the SD

    SQRT(.79 x .21) = about .41

    SE = SQRT(400) x SD = 20 x .41 = 8.2

    Now convert to percent

    (8.2/400) x 100% = 2%

    Answer = 79% living at how with off by +-2%
  4. Confident Interval
    States that 2 SE will be within 95% of the total population. Think and the Normal Curve. 2 SD = 95% in area

    • 1 interval sample percentage = +- 68%
    • 2 interval sample percentage = +- 75%
    • 3 interval sample percentage = +- 95%

    how it could be bigger than 10 SE interval sample percentage. Remember area under curve never hits a 100%. There are no definete limits
  5. Confidence Interval
    (Using Normal Curve)
    • population = 25000
    • draw = 1600
    • 917 people are democrats

    Find a 95 Confidence interval 

    Find percentage = (916/1600) x 100% = 57% 

    • Democrats = 57% 
    • Other = 43%

    Find SD = SQRT(.57 x .43) = 5

    SE = SQRT(#draws) x sd = SQRT 1600 x .49 = 20

    Covert into percent (20/1600) x 100% = 1.25

    • 95% = +- 2SD 
    • 2 SD = 2 x 1.25 = 2.5 
    • Answer =  57.3 +- 2.5 = Between 54.8% - 59.8%
  6. Percentage formula
    Number of 0s, 1s, SE/#draws x 100%

    it just the fraction formula
  7. Confidence interval Interpetation
    A confidential interval is used when estimating an unknown parameter from sample data. The interval gives a range for the parament, and a confidence level that the range covers the true value

    The chances are in the sampling procedure not in the parameters

    The confidence level say that 95% of all samples, the interval +-2SE (in sample percents). The other 5% it does not cover
  8. Chance Error and Confidence Interval
    A sample will be off the population percentage due to chance error. The SE tells you the likely size of the amount off.
  9. Warning to Confidence Interval and Sampling
    Warning the formulas for simple random samples may not apply to other kinds of samples.

    If the samples are not taken at random the square root law may not apply and may give silly answers.

    Simple random samples is just about the same as drawing from a box with replacement -- the basis situation to which the square root law applies.

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